The NHS in England could fall significantly short of the government’s 18-week elective care waiting-time target by 2029, according to new analysis from the Health Foundation.

The government has committed to having 92% of patients waiting no longer than 18 weeks for elective treatment by the end of the current parliament. However, the Health Foundation’s latest modelling suggests that, if current trends continue, 92% of waits could still be around 35 weeks by July 2029.

The analysis found some recent improvement. The proportion of patients waiting within 18 weeks increased from 61.3% to 65.4% over the 12 months to July 2026, while the waiting list fell by around 62,000 to 7.33 million.

However, the Health Foundation said the growth in new referrals has accelerated, making it harder for the NHS to reduce waiting times at the pace required. Its modelling projects that the waiting list could remain around 7.1 million by July 2029 if current trends continue.

The NHS Alliance has also warned that meeting the 18-week standard within the parliament is unlikely under current conditions, while the Royal College of Surgeons has called for investment in workforce, operating theatres and surgical capacity.

The government’s latest official statistics for August 2026 elective care were scheduled for release on 8 October, providing further data on the NHS waiting-list position.