The first piece of unsolicited advice for Britain’s incoming prime minister might be not to listen too closely to unsolicited advice. Andy Burnham should avoid becoming a leader who is easily influenced by whoever last spoke to him.

Instead, he would do well to study the experiences of recent prime ministers, whose successes and failures offer plenty of lessons as he prepares to enter Downing Street.

The early days of his premiership will be particularly important. Burnham will have only one opportunity to make a first impression, and for many voters outside Greater Manchester, he remains a relatively unfamiliar political figure. What he says and does during his first few weeks will play a major role in shaping public opinion.

Keir Starmer's experience offers an immediate warning. His premiership lost much of its early goodwill after he repeatedly warned that the situation facing the country would get worse before it improved. The pessimism that emerged in the summer of 2024 proved difficult to overcome.

Burnham will not enjoy the same boost that comes with winning a general election, but he does appear to have something valuable: a degree of public goodwill. After years of political instability and a succession of prime ministers, many voters may be willing to give him an opportunity to succeed.

That goodwill, however, must be carefully protected.

Burnham has described his central mission as bringing hope back to Britain. His more approachable and optimistic style could help him achieve that, but he will need to avoid repeating Starmer's early mistake of allowing warnings about the country's problems to dominate his public message. Difficult economic announcements may be better delivered by the chancellor, while the prime minister focuses on convincing people that the future can improve.

If public confidence and Labour's polling position begin to strengthen, Burnham must also resist any temptation to call an early general election. Gordon Brown's experience shows how quickly speculation about an election can take on a life of its own. Once the rumours begin, political pressure can make it increasingly difficult for a prime minister to step back.

The question of who Burnham appoints to his cabinet and Downing Street team will be equally important. The old political maxim that “personnel is policy” remains highly relevant. No prime minister can manage every aspect of government personally, meaning the people placed in key positions will influence both the competence and direction of the administration.

The instability surrounding Starmer's early Downing Street operation, including the rapid change in his chief of staff, demonstrated how uncertainty at the centre of government can create wider problems. Burnham will need to ensure that his team is united, capable and clear about the direction he wants to take.

His first policy decisions will also carry considerable weight. Advisers have indicated that the new government will make a series of announcements soon after taking office. That could help prevent the political agenda from being dominated by opponents, as happened during periods when Labour appeared inactive while Reform UK gained attention.

But the announcements must be carefully considered. Public tolerance for policy reversals has been badly weakened by years of political U-turns. Burnham's government will need to make decisions that are credible, practical and capable of surviving political pressure.

That will be easier if the prime minister begins with a clear plan.

Burnham has insisted that he knows what he believes, what he wants to achieve and how he intends to proceed. Such clarity is vital. A government without a clear direction can easily be overwhelmed by unexpected events.

International crises, security threats and major global developments can quickly dominate a prime minister's agenda. Tony Blair's premiership, for example, was dramatically reshaped by the September 11 attacks and the subsequent invasion of Iraq. A clear domestic programme can help a government maintain its sense of direction when unforeseen events threaten to take over.